IFT Live 2010

June 8, 2009, 2:01 am

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by Mary Ellen Kuhn
posted on June 8, 2009

The economic downturn that has rocked the world over the course of the past year hasn’t provided much reason for cheer. But witty, often amusing economic experts Todd Buchholz (photo, right) and Jeffrey Alan Rosensweig (photo, below) delivered a cautiously optimistic forecast for economic recovery in their Keynote presentation, “What’s Next? The Current Economy and the Future of Food,” on Sunday morning, June 7.

Buchholz, a former White House Economic Policy Advisor and Harvard professor, cited two factors that he believes will help move us out of the recessionary climate.

“Ninety percent of Americans will keep their jobs, and everything is on sale,” said Buchholz, noting that “consumers are building up buying power.” He predicted “the beginnings of an economic recovery” will emerge in the United States this fall.

The cost of advertising, too, has dropped, said Buchholz, advising business leaders in the audience that “now is the time to take advantage of lower ad prices.” He cited the example of the Kellogg Co., which opted to maintain a strong advertising program during the Great Depression, and emerged in a stronger position as the economy recovered.

Buchholz offered another business recommendation, citing the example of McDonald’s founder Ray Kroc, noted for his effective partnerships with franchisees. In trying economic times, he said, it is especially important to pick your business partners well and to treat them well.

Rosensweig, a media commentator and professor with the Goizueta Business School of Emory University, offered a detailed analysis of the international markets that will show growth in the next year or two. Included on the list—in addition to the U.S.—were India, China, Brazil, Russia, and Mexico.

He pointed out that the world population will grow at a rate of 75 million people a year for the next 25 years, and that, he said, is “why I am optimistic about the future of the food industry.”

Of course, in order to capitalize on the population growth of developing nations, “it’s important that we don’t collapse into protectionism,” said Rosensweig. Both Buchholz and Rosensweig urged Americans to guard against a protectionist stance and to embrace the global economy. “

In the food arena, Buchholz noted that consumers are becoming more global in their tastes. “We live in this global world,” he said. “It is this multicultural global world that is going to give us opportunities. We have to develop foods that take advantage of changing tastes. “

Both Buchholz and Rosensweig cautioned that the economic improvements they are forecasting will be incremental rather than dramatic, with Rosensweig noting that the U.S. deficit will climb even more dramatically next year than this year because the U.S. stimulus package is “back-end loaded.”

Buchholz shared his analysis of the forces that worked together to prompt the past year’s “great recession,” attributing it in large part to the convergence of the mortgage crisis and the commodities price explosion of 2007–2008.